What double-game?

For the most part Americans and the World believe Pakistan has fallen no short of treacherous in the ‘War on terror’ that started eleven years ago. Islamabad’s so-called ‘shady tactics’ have given her biggest ally cold feet, time and again. With aid cuts and unilateral attacks Washington has been able to step on dependent Pakistan’s fragile self esteem by conveying crisply “who’s boss”. More recently an American journalist interviewed Prime Minister Gilani, confirming the tone of this asymmetrical partnership. Gilani, a controversial figure back home, who’s Premiership itself is criticized and rejected over the infamous ‘Contempt of Court’ case, was pushed into the corner of shame, reminded of his vulnerable position and ‘dysfunctionality’ of the society he represents.

When the Afghan war of 2001 started, Musharraf’s government was told “You’re either with us or against us”. The only option at that point was too join the anti-terrorism bandwagon. Then, like the 1980s, Pakistan was a critical ally, crucial to the success of the war. This positive image however has deteriorated. From the most vital ally Pakistan has depreciated to an enemy, labeled a hypocrite and more frequently a traitor, in not so many words. Pakistan’s relationship with the US has been unpredictable since 1947; however at such a crucial point in history, US suspicion is perhaps the last delicacy Pakistan needs on her platter.

The first allegation against Pakistan is support for the enemy: the Islamist Pashtuns, the Taliban. Pakistan is believed to prolong the war by sheltering and supporting terrorists who fight NATO forces, prolonging the war and minting billions in the process. This belief was solidified when the US found Osama bin Laden hiding in a house in Abbotabad, safely near the army’s training headquarters. Pakistan’s Sovereignty was in jeopardy after the incident (as the strike was unilateral, without any authorization from Pakistan Army or political establishment), but capturing OBL re-enforced the conviction that Pakistan had been harboring the terrorist all along.

Secondly, the ISI was accused of maintaining links with the ‘Haqqani’ network. Once the US’s blue eyed boy, like the Taliban, this group’s links with Pak Army made the US feel deceived and insecure. The icing on the cake however was the mass jail break that occurred on 15 April 2012. Four hundred inmates were released, and just walked out of the prison like victors, heroes, not stopped by the Army or prison security. The perpetrators of violence in these tribal regions, the Pakistani Taliban, are liable for the deaths of more than three thousand army personnel since the operation started in 2007.

While Pakistan continues to draw suspicion, the US has created mediums of combating enemies that make her less dependent on deceitful Pakistan. One of these is drone warfare. Responsible for the deaths of thousands of innocent civilians, and lifelong disabilities of many more, (in Pakistan) drones have become the target of a global civil society that has been exposed to the magnitude of war crimes committed by them. Even though the Pakistan government, under civilian pressure halted drone strikes successfully for a month after the Salala attack, they resumed without authorization, and have continued to occur since.

The Salala check post attack, of 26 November 2011, was a direct assault on Pakistan’s Sovereignty. Yet to obtain an apology for the lives of twenty five troops, including an officer and Captain, the incident has left Pakistan scarred. The immediate aftermath was closure of NATO supply route (re-opening 18 May 2012), halt on drone strikes (that only lasted a month) and evacuation of the Shamsi airbase near Jacobabad. The unprovoked attack on Pakistani troops has escalated anti-Americanism.

With differences escalating between Islamabad and Washington, recent incidents prove that Washington has perpetually resorted to the ‘stick’. The two continue to talk at each other. Running out of patience and facing a dearth of common motives, the US and Pakistan are both trying to get the most out of this flimsy partnership, without bringing their differences on the table. Instead they have resorted to coercion. Where Islamabad and ISI like to remind Washington of their regional ‘edge’, the latter has used media and other domestic problems as excuses to step on Pakistan’s credibility. For Western media Pakistan has been playing a “double game” with the US. Are Pakistanis living in a bubble; in absolute denial of the treacherous actions of their intelligence forces and political establishment? What is this double game that Pakistan has been accused of playing?

The crux of the problem is straightforward. For the US this decade long war’s success lies in the sustainability of the institutions they have created and upheld. The Karzai government suits the attainment of imperial agendas. Its loyalties lie with the West, its creator. The liberal face of Afghanistan must enjoy the support of US allies, like Pakistan. However this US plot falters because the very ‘Islamist Pashtuns’ they have spent trillions on defeating remain the most powerful political group even today. Pakistan’s prediction is that as soon as the US leaves, there will be political unrest, and the Islamist Pashtuns are most likely to secure the next government. Without the safety nets and American presence, the Karzai government is highly unlikely to live on.

Pakistan wants regional stability more than anything else. However it has suffered while pursuing US ideology and objectives in the first Afghan war that drove the Soviets out. A massive victory for the West, the Afghan war has left millions of refugees, drugs, Kalashnikovs and extremism in the country. The Pakistan Army’s ‘Jihadi’ mindset was a product of her interaction with Afghan brothers. The porous North West border, loyalties based on ethnicity, and a large Pashtun population put Pakistan in a susceptible position. We created the Taliban because the CIA wanted them; we embraced an ‘Islamic ideology’ that created the synergy to intimidate and defeat the Soviets. Once we joined hands and minds with them, they started hating on the West, and now, we must fight them.

The US’s expectations from Pakistan are unreasonable. America’s tunnel vision policies, that only aim to justify war amidst re-election, fail to factor in the many strings that are attached to Pakistan’s participation. However, the ground reality suggests that it is in Pakistan’s interest to not throw all her eggs in one basket (the Karzai government), and instead act to secure her own regional interests.

Tacstrat Analysis
By Zoon Ahmad Khan