In consonance with the Arab spring revolts, Yemen’s 30 year old government is the latest victim of revolts from an aggravated and exhausted populace- a movement that took almost an entire year. For months entire village populations set up camp in the capital in what became a thriving tent city, demanding the ouster of President Saleh and family from the government. Abdullah Ali Saleh, after 33 years, was forced to step down in November under pressure from his own people and neighbouring Saudi Arabia. As part of the transition, his Prime Minister Abdrabbuh Hadi ran uncontested in elections and won. Even though there was no other contestant, the elections are still seen as a welcome change. Anything to get Saleh out apparently. Saleh’s family however is still strongly entrenched in the government, especially the military. Last week thousands of Air-Force officers took to the streets to demand that Saleh’s brother, who is currently head of the Air-Force, be forced to step down.
Such protests, however, are part and parcel of the process of change.
In the long run, sociologists will see it as the system correcting itself, the mechanics of the transition process. However, another player has re-emerged to tamper with the process. Last Sunday, Yemen lost 185 of its soldiers to a co-ordinated and finely executed attack by the local wing of Al-Qaeda. An attack seemingly in response to the new president’s public resolves to fight terrorism on Yemeni soil.
Only yesterday they declared the Shabwa Province (birth place for former Al-qaeda leader) an Islamic Emirate, in a move that’s not the first but certainly the biggest in its magnitude.
Depending on how it is handled, this might have been the firing salvo of the start of a bloody chapter in Yemen’s transition.
The Broader Picture
Al-Qaeda has been active in Yemen for quite some time now. In fact its Yemeni branch has of late been its most active cell. Even the United States has taken notice. The U.S.A has been training and equipping Yemeni troops for counter-terrorism under the previous president. Last year when many top American Military generals stated that they had commandos stationed for active (and covert) missions across the world, Yemen came up as the usual suspect, although the actual number of troops present there is unknown. But to put it in perspective, the total number of ISAF troops present in Afghanistan at their highest was just 110’000. The total number of U.S special forces troops that are believed (as quoted by those same generals) to be operating in counter-terrorism operations across the world as part of the United States’ well-known-secret war is 60’000.
After the somewhat peaceful transition of power, the United States will not sit idly by and let the opportunity go. It seems that Yemen is in store for a hard battle, possibly one where the identity of the new government will be at stake. Not when the rest of the region is being doused with gasoline and Israel just itching to light the match and clear a path to Tehran. At this point, the United States, or rather the Middle Eastern players themselves need to create as many centres of stability as possible in the region, so that the whole region doesn’t explode when Israel and Iran finally go crazy.
For the moment, the people have been outraged by the Al-Qaeda attack and come out in a wave of patriotism in support of their troops. What I hope will happen, is that the people of Yemen, like the protesters of Tahrir square, start to own this revolution and the fight against the militants as well, and not let anyone hijack their long elusive freedom.
Tacstrat Analysis
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