Syria, Bahrain and then some…

The debacle of Gaddhafi’s regime after an un-exptedly long military intervention was the point of resurgence for NATO and the many Arab nations that took part. The campaign came at a time when NATO was stretched thin, and its Arab allies had never enjoyed such a reputation. As such, as is the case before every major war, no one expected them to do much. It came as a surprise when NATO leaders and regional countries like Qatar and Kuwait doled out money and men in an unprecedented campaign of military intervention, something that atleast the Arab countries were never expected to be good at. The swift end of the Qaddhafi regime was the successful completion of the testing of new, more pro-active foreign policies of the participating Arab countries.

In light of this, their lack of success or even attempts of such in Syria are confusing. Bahrain, you can explain away easily. Saudi Arabia wants the regime in place, so the world will look the other way especially when they are already aggravating one of the biggest oil provider (Iran). But why Syria? Would this not be the ideal place for the newly resurgent Arab nations to continue showing their new resolve, and isolate any malicious influences from within and outside their region? At a time when information, bloody images of riot police beating protesters to death, and deserting government officials exposing every single detail of the crackdown, why is Assad able to carry out the modern day version of Tiananmen square (the current civilian death toll is put at 5000)?

The most obvious answer would be the crisis developing in Libya. The new rebel government under the auspices of the NTC is breaking up. And if the initial stages of the international bombing campaign seemed badly planned, the situation after the war seems like the first pebbles of a landslide that will be pull the ground from beneath everyone’s feet. And as much as the Arab nations are concerned, direct intervention is a quagmire that they would be better off avoiding.

Secondly, and in practical terms more pressingly, while Libya was a beleaguered nations shunned off by almost the whole world, Syria had been till a while ago, an active member in the region both politically and militarily. Open war with Syria, would be a costly proposition, and something that none of the countries involved can afford given the already explosive situation with Iran.

So what will happen? For the moment it seems that the conditions are not favourable for an intervention. It would seem that the Arab league will wait for a situation akin to the fighting in Libya, where relatively clearly demarcated armed groups formed an a military force against the government, before the rest of the world joined in. At present, the only thing the Arab league mission can do is coerce Assad into stopping. This will be somewhat successful if they decide to take a tougher tone, but no one should expect any radical change brought about by this. Assad will still pound his iron fist down on any opposition he deems too loud, but he might be forced to compromise in cases to appease the league, more a show than a commitment.

By Sarah Eleazar

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