As early as 2008, western countries comprising NATO developed the lengthier more costly alter route to northern Afghanistan through Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia called the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) to supply non-lethal supplies to the allied troops from Europe. The NATO incursion at Pakistan’s Salala base on 26 November last year led to a relationship deep freeze between Pakistan and the US, which many called the last nail in the coffin US had been hammering at throughout the past year. Pakistan’s official position following the attacks was to seal the Pak-Afghan border for NATO used to route 80% of all material and 40% of all fuel to ISAF/NATO troops in Afghanistan and ordered America to vacate Shamsi Airbase in Balochistan that was used to support Predator operations along the border.
US watched mouth agape as all of a sudden the scales tipped in favor of Russia that now held the key to the precious NDN supply line into land locked Afghanistan. Turbulent history with America aside, maintaining its sphere of influence along Russian periphery is crucial for Russia and increased American reliance on NDN raises the possibility of American military proliferation in the form of military bases and ground transport corridors in the region. While the accompanying infrastructure development in the region will not only provide an energy supply route from Central Asia (touted as the next energy hub) by-passing Russia, but it will also provide a significant payoff for Russia and China in the long run as trade routes and possibilities for more pipelines spring up. However key security concerns riddling Russia will probably not allow for uninhibited American presence in the region, especially since NATO operations in Afghanistan are now held hostage to Moscow’s whims. Moscow now has the leverage to stop the US for pushing ahead with NATO’s expansion in former-Soviet territories, especially after George Bush rallied hard to get Ukraine and Georgia added to the membership.
Furthermore while Russia would rather have ISAF succeed in not letting the Taliban return to power, US presence along the Uzbek-Tajik-Turkmenistan border will for all intents and purposes bring with it re-spawning of Taliban along the borders which along with IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) will exacerbate security tensions in the region creating another terror hub, Russia and China might also have to deal with. Canadian troops have already reported incidents of pilferage and theft among containers travelling via NDN. At December’s meeting of CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), all member countries agreed to unanimous consent among themselves before any CSTO member decides to allow a non-CSTO country to establish a base on its territory. The US airbase at Manas, Kyrgyzstan is a contentious issue already and the Kyrgyz President has asked the US to vacate it before 2014 already.
The anti-ballistic missile defense program US installed in Poland in 2007, is another sore topic for Russia that sees the presence of American arsenal in Europe as a threat to itself regardless of whether America intends to use it as a preventive measure against North Korea or Iran. The process of détente that Obama began with Moscow under the treaty called New START reinforces lessons Moscow has learnt from its previous dealings with US.
While the Russian Ambassador to the US has repeatedly assured America that it is in Russia’s interests for NATO to complete its job, stabilize Afghanistan and leave the region peacefully and completely; Moscow has been using its new found power over NATO’s supply route to threaten blockage in case any Russian interests are threatened.
Being milked for all their worth at Russian hands is a price America believes is far too great for the ‘grave error’ committed at the Salala base. They have urged Pakistan time and again to re-establish ties and allow them to transport non-lethal goods but to no avail. Whether Pakistan is simply asserting its political and military clout or displaying righteous indignation at the murder of twenty four army personnel, the fact remains that steep hike in costs of transporting goods and divergence of interests in Afghanistan are two issues that have set NATO back to a greater degree than what meets the eye.
Pakistan’s government on the other hand is undergoing its own personal version of Dante’s Inferno, what with the breakdown of trust the people have in the government, laying low for the time being and using back channel conduits for negotiations and insignificant concessions might just be the right modus operandi for the time being.
Amid all these tensions Drone Strikes on the Af-Pak border reassumed for the first time after November 17thkilling four militants. Although headlines claiming that CIA does plan to resume drone strikes in the near future made rounds in weeks preceding the attacks , government officials from US and Pakistan have issued statements acknowledging that Pakistan was given no official prior notice to this resumption of drone warfare. This attack prompted a swift retaliation in the form of a blast in Jamrud, targeting anti-Taliban elements and ended up killing forty civilians in the process.
With intelligence sharing and bilateral operations being a fallacious notion where Pakistan and USA are concerned, one wonders why the US is trying so hard to further aggravate matters for itself by acting in such a logic-defying high handed manner. At a point where internal discontent with the regime in Pakistan is at a point of no return and social attitudes rage against the US more than ever, taking stock of American attitudes, the gaping fissure NATO created and refused to fill with an official apology leaves Pakistan with no respectable choice but to keep the supply routes into Afghanistan blocked as reprisal for the time being till internal sentiments simmer.
Tacstrat Analysis
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