Gambling with Iran’s Nuclear Weapon

Is supporting Iran’s nuclear weapons development program in Pakistan’s interests?

Iran’s nuclear bomb.

This tiny phrase certainly had the capability to ignite an explosion in the media which is daily reporting Iran’s violations to IAEA’s regulations, the global powers response to Iran’s nuclear program and solutions to avoid a possible third world war.

United States is trying to garner Asian support for its decision. Europe and now Japan has sided with America. Oddly enough, Pakistan- the country that shares a border with Iran, the country that has  been the stage for sectarian violence probably fueled by Iran, the country that is surging ahead to build a gas pipeline with Iran, – is silent about Iran. Makes one wonder what is it that the Pakistani government is up to?  Whether or not the issue has been dramatized by the media is another debate. But how is it possible that Pakistan has avoided commenting on this issue altogether? Perhaps in playing the silent game Pakistan is waiting for a critical point after which it would make a move.

There have been allegations of Iran –Pakistan collaboration on nuclear matters but these have been denied by both countries. Pakistan has excellent relations with Iran that date back to their CENTO partnership and Iranian support to Pakistan in the wars with India and the earlier insurgencies in Baluchistan. Pakistan move quickly to recognize the Khomeini regime after the fall of the Shah.

Last year, Iranian president Ahmadinejad stated his fears for Pakistan’s nuclear program which is covertly being targeted by the Americans. While the US has not made a move to usurp control over Pakistan’s nukes, it has voiced its concern in protecting nukes from militant organizations. The recent assassinations of Iranian scientists should not go unheeded by the Pakistanis. Who knows the next leakage may be about Pakistan’s nuclear program? International access to Pakistan’s nuclear program may ensure a degree of transparency but it can also expose key personnel working under the nuclear energy and weapons development program.

President Ahmadinejad’’s accusatory claims could not be proven but these cannot be dismissed altogether. On one hand, Iran could be trying to divert attention from its program while on the other hand, it could be an attempt to coax Pakistan into revealing strategic information of its highly protected nuclear program. Iran could then use this information as leverage against any future Taliban attacks on Iran. Iran fears sectarian elements in the Taliban and disapproves of Pakistan’s support to the militants.

The issue of dissuading Iran from its nuclear program has made headlines more than once. For the Iranians, this would amount to trampling on their national right. A nuclear weapon is a symbol of national prestige and self-reliance for them. Covert actions such as assassinations and bombings have done little to change Iran’s mind.  Sanctions have been futile too. Opponents are contemplating over the use of military strikes and Iran has threatened closure of the Straits of Hormuz. The consequences of an attack on Iran could be horrendous for a recession ridden world. A regime-change would be a risky move as Iran might deploy weapons to save itself and the new government might decide to stick to previous nuclear policies. [1]

But we must not be shy to imagine a world with a tenth nuclear power. Iran already has the support of two superpowers, Russia and China, which have opposed US sanctions from the beginning. Russia feels that sanctions would only “stifle… the Iranian economy and the population in an apparent hope to provoke discontent”. China is Iran’s biggest importer of oil and gas and while it has disagreed from cutting imports, the fact that Obama prohibited institutions dealing with the Iranian Central Bank from operating in US financial markets, would make it difficult for Chinese to pay for their imports. Support to Iran could indeed be to antagonize the US but analysts feel that China would not take the path of direct confrontation.  In addition, the fact that Saudi energy exports to China rank higher than that of Iran will demand strategic maneuvering on China’s part to prevent alienation of its Saudi, American and Iranian friends.

India has also opposed US sanctions and unlike western powers, continues to import oil from Iran. It has also invested in Iran’s gas fields and last week the two countries, were looking into industrial cooperation includingvehicle manufacturing.  However, it’s common knowledge that India backed out of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline due to US pressure. In a move to safeguard its interests, India has started exploring gas imports from Israel.

Pakistan might be concerned about what an open approval on Iran might do to its relations with Saudi Arabia. The latter has been quite vocal in its disapproval of Iran’s program. The Saudi King has even encouraged US forces tocut the snake’s head while another Saudi official has already reported to have warned of the possibility ofdeveloping nuclear weapons in gulf countries should Iran develop its nuclear weapon.

Saudis who are staunch Sunni Muslims are would be opposed to Shia inroads and could retaliate. Six months ago, the Saudi consulate in Pakistan was attacked by members of Lashkar-e-Mehdi. This month, the murder of Shia leader Askari Raza sparked protests in Karachi. Currently, Saudi Arabia is displeased with the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Its refusal to sell oil on credit to Pakistan seems to be politically motivated. As a next step, they may decide to interfere in the sectarian violence scenario.  However, the two countries share very close relations and it is unlikely that Pakistan would push Saudis into taking such a radical step.

Another source of concern can be the effect it would have on Turkey, which falls within close range for Iran’s missiles. Terrorist attacks by the PKK (Turkish Workers’ Party) in Turkey were said to be backed by Iran. It is believed that Iran uses this to ensure that Turkey does not align itself with Western powers. The Turkey-Iran-Brazil nuclear swap deal was a farce. It did little to prevent Iran from moving ahead with a nuclear program. Iran threatened to attack the NATO defense  shield in Kurecik, Turkey if external forces attacked it.

The greatest opposition to Iran comes from Israel, based on a self-perceived threat that a nuclear Iran may plan to wipe out Israelis and regain control over the holy places. Israel upholds the “Never-again” principle and believes military preemption as the best option. Israel’s enemies, Hezbollah and Hamas, which would most probably come under a nuclear Iran, would evolve from formidable to untouchable enemies. Israel holds Hezbollah responsible for the attacks on the Israeli embassy (1992) and Jewish community building (1994) in Argentina.

With China, Russia, India, Iran on one side and Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey on the other, we can see a more equitable distribution of power. Iran’s presence as a nuclear power would without doubt grant it the prestige it has yearned for and a strong voice in its dealings with Western powers. The matter could be an entirely psychological one. All of the above countries are aware that a nuclear combat would be destructive for everyone. Moreover, Iran has become rusty from the lack of any recent invasions and wars. In other words, Iran would be likely to choose a less aggressive path and work towards better relations with other countries. A more powerful Iran would be a less dangerous Iran. [2] If this is the case, then global superpowers should consider working on a truce with Iran.

Others would, however, disagree. Iran’s success at developing a bomb would be the golden ticket that other regional countries have been waiting for. One after the other, countries will start demanding their right for a nuclear weapon. Iran could also make use of its nuclear bomb to assert its influence in global decisions like oil policy or Israel-Palestinian conflict. It may become a despot in regional matters like demanding the removal of US forces in central Asia.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, supporting Iran’s nuclear weapons would be a sensible move. In this way, Pakistan and its neighbors will all be at the same level which can promote regional cooperation. It can benefit from cheaper fuel imports from Russia and Iran. The TAPI project would benefit all stakeholders. Chinese expertise in technology and finance can help revitalize Pakistan’s industry and economy. Bilateral trade with India would help reduce the heavy costs of imports from distant countries. Afghanistan can help Pakistan acquire access to central Asian markets. Pakistani exports, which have a market in its neighboring countries, can improve. Pakistan, in turn, can provide its neighbors especially landlocked central Asian countries and Afghanistan with access to the MENA region and south-east Asian countries via Gwadar and Karachi port. Most of all this would promote regional interdependence.  One step on Pakistan’s part can open many doors to prosperity. But for this to happen, it will have to adjust its foreign policy to allow more room for regional collaboration.

By Nida Afaque
Tacstrat Analysis

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