Pakistan’s attempt to exact token reprisal for the Salala Attacks did not culminate in the sought after apology from the US nor did it halt drone strikes past a month. It might have been perceived by our top echelons as an opportunity to re-draw our lines of engagement, and the political claptrap surrounding the Parliamentary Committee for National Security (PCNS) debates must have bolstered this stance. Difai Pakistan took to the streets clad in martial-rightwing chainmail issuing dire warnings in case of resumption of the supply route, and Khar went on to declare the two countries as strategic partners not allies.
But all good things come to an end; the ephemeral excuse of national interest could not hold ground for long in this case. So when the DCC (Defense Committee of the Cabinet) got on board the G-LOCS (Ground Lines of Communication), the early dissenters quietly returned to their camps. With promises of commission ‘up to’ a million dollars a day, the government began selling the newly negotiated terms as a strategic win to save face.
The US has asked Pakistan to provide security for trucks en route to Afghanistan. Security for NATO supplies had hitherto been provided by private contractors; the trucks would still get looted, providing Taliban with a steady supply of weapons and ammunition. A thriving black market selling items from computers to American flags was in the process of shutting down since supplies in the last six months had dwindled. So now Pakistan has been asked to deal with this issue of targeted pilfering.
If the Pakistani government agrees to this demand, then the small increase in price negotiated with the US comes to naught. Firstly the logistical costs of fuel, setting up bases and transferring say, the FC or Army troops there would cancel out any gains to be made from this newly drafted deal. If this doesn’t involve chalking out a completely different assignment for the Army or FC, then it would materialize in the form of costs involving training a national guard for the supply route.
Secondly, Pakistani forces, or paramilitary posted along the Pak-Afghan border automatically become easy targets for Taliban and exercises for terrorists. To arm them to the teeth would require massive funds and even then the beauty of asymmetric warfare favors the Taliban. Pakistan is looking at bleak possibilities of immense loss of life, livelihood and reparations if it agrees to provide security along the border.
This Faustian bargain was inevitable, even warranted. However the new terms of engagement must be drawn with extreme caution. Pakistan shouldn’t have to be the one apologizing for the Salala Attack by signing a regressive deal.
Courtesy: TACSTRAT ANALYSIS http://tacstrat.com
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