A recent series of unfortunate events have cast a red shadow on the South Asian waters, and has many newspapers columnists and opinion makers running articles ranging from sceptical to hysterical. Two of these events which remain most important are firstly, Chinese expansion that most recently resulted in friction with the Philippines. The atmosphere became so hot that Chinese state television actually warned the population of the Philippines to prepare, and possibly evacuate, for a month long war. The second, and most recent, was the downgrading of Standard and Poor’s credit rating for India, to BBB-, the lowest possible credit rating. On their own, these two events would only have affected the regional power balance. But given the size of the aspirations of the two regional superpowers in question, and the hopes the United States had pinned on hedging between the two, the effects, most people believe, will be more widespread.
In an attempt to cope with the rise of China, and the realization of its own decline in relative power, the United States had adopted a number of different strategies to simultaneously befriend and keep in check the growing ambition of China. The policies ranged from co-operation in trade with China, to strengthening and significantly broadening relations with India. The most recent of which was the United States proposing (at least in rhetoric) that China, India and America act as financial regulators and leaders for South Asia. The attempts to befriend China have made little headway. Even though the United States claims that relations with China are better than ever, that’s not saying a lot considering that up until the last decade the Chinese were shooting down American spy planes hovering over China and unearthing bugging devices in their premier’s private plane. China itself, confident as ever in its rise, seems to be in no hurry to forgive anyone. But the sad part is that now plan-BBB- seems to be in jeopardy too. Or is it?
India’s downgrading has cast doubts on the economy’s ability to sustain growth. The obvious question is that if India cannot match China’s growth, will it still be the regional counterweight being the biggest democracy? But such questions may seem a bit too early. The downgrading of India’s credit rating is a big deal; the Indians should never delude themselves into thinking otherwise. But Standard and Poor’s reasons for doing so are also very relevant. It was mainly due the government’s inability to push through further reforms due to increased opposition. This has nothing to do with any change of ideas that may lead to long term repercussions. India is an experienced democracy. Such hurdles, as the Americans have also learned recently, appear from time to time. It’s not that the opposition in India believes that the economic direction taken is wrong and must be stopped. Everyone has seen the effects of economic reforms, and after the political hue and cry is over, the process will start again. So this roadblock might just end up being nothing more than a pothole, which should not even be given the privilege of being called a ‘short-term’ debacle. But this still doesn’t mean that plan-BBB- will work for the USA.
The fundamental difference between China and India on the one side, and the hundreds of different ‘client states’ that America pins its foreign policy on, is the fact that both China and India are aware and extremely proud of not just their position but their potential as well. These were countries that were time and again deliberately ignored by the world before their economies started their startling rise. Throughout all of that time, they refused to yield to the United States or even the Soviet Union. This proud past has led to a certain amount of hubris today as well. But the fact that both these two countries are so fanatically proud of their selves, and now that they have the economic and political clout to show for it, makes it ridiculous to even think that the United States could ever believe that they will be able to play them off against each other. India is acutely aware of this, and keeps the US at an arm’s length, especially when it comes to military relations. It has taken significant steps to improve relations with China, specifically through bilateral trade.
If the Elephant and Dragon shied away from the Bald Eagle in the Cold War when the world was polarized to the hilt, it is asinine for America now to envision a podium in Asia to serve a two pronged agenda. Increased financial deregulation in the wake of an unprecedented financial crisis has effectively gnawed, quite termite like, around the dollar that fell to 72 Swiss cents last year. Instead of pooling all efforts into fixing the state of the economy back home, America’s adventurism in Asia seems to add on new chapters every now and then. This fresh attempt at gaining financial leverage by tying three mammoth economies while at the same time creating a semblance of ‘balance of power’ in the region is an exercise in futility. The US is not going to be mollycoddled by countries inherently suspicious of its motives and the sooner this is realized the better.
By: Taimur Khan
Courtesy: ZoneAsia-Pk
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