Pakistan at present suffers from the worst energy crisis history has ever recorded. The economy is becoming increasingly dependent on imported petroleum products with an alarming 86% reliance on imported oil. With gas shortages to power plants, insufficient hydro-electricity generation plants and bureaucratic red tape to thermal power projects, currently Pakistan experiences a shortfall of approximately 5700 MW. Industries and businesses have started to collapse from the unbearable input costs.
The National Energy Conference could not have been held at a more suitable time. Unfortunately the recommendations decided in the meeting were more of a mockery to the frustrated masses than an emollient. All commercial businesses were ordered to be closed down by 8pm. Offices would announce a 2 day holiday which would help save approximately 700 MW of energy, a tiny3.4% of the total expected summer demand. Daylight savings would no longer be used. Instead office hours will be fixed seasonally. A conservation plan for street lights, including energy savers, would be implemented and electric supply to unnecessary areas like billboards would be cut. Actions to prevent power thefts would be taken through a new draft which the government will prepare. These suggestions were originally proposed quite a while back but little effort was done to implement them.
In a feeble attempt to humanize the crisis, the PM announced an increase in free electricity units from 50 to 100 MW for the poor. The public however, worries this might result in higher power tariffs for other consumers. To add the right pinch of a personal touch, PM Gilani prohibited the use of air conditioners at the PM House and Secretariat before 11 A.M. and the installation of prepaid meters in government offices to cut down usage and prevent accumulation of dues.
Perhaps the PM overlooked the fact that these recommendations had been offered at a similar energy conference during his own party’s regime. Assuming our Prime Minister was not disoriented at the time of this conference, how would he explain the need for this repetition and lack of response to the earlier suggestions? This is not the time to assume tried and tested solutions but to discuss their earlier effectiveness.
The conference had much to say about conservation but, as majority of the public would agree, conservation would be sensible if there was energy to conserve in the first place! Hardly any discussion was carried out on power generation. The cursory attention given to this matter made it look like our politicians were planning to build castles in the air. A list of multiple projects was offered to show that the government was involved in new energy related projects like the Diamer Bhasha Dam and the Neelum- Jhelum Dam and the rehabilitation of present projects like more turbines at Tarbela. No time-frame for the completion of the projects was given and neither were the issues impeding their development addressed. Stress was certainly laid on the 18th Amendment which made the provincial governments responsible for generation and conservation of energy. The PM conveniently attributed the issue of the stagnant Kalabagh Dam to the lack of provincial consensus.
A major development in the conference was the consensus over uniform loadshedding nationwide. Analysts, however, foresee hurdles in the implementation of this decision. Article 157/158 in the Constitution grants provinces the right of first use of indigenous natural resources before distributing them to other provinces. Sindh for instance is likely to acquire a stay order against a reduction in its gas supply and until the matter is resolved in court, will continue with the discriminatory distribution. The PM was convinced that mutual agreementwould not lead to such extreme actions.
For traders and industrialists, who are immensely affected by power outages, the conference was a futile attempt to resolve the crisis. With the current erratic nature of the supply of electricity, an early shutdown of businesses and 2 day holiday will escalate their losses even more. They feel the government is ignoring their interests and taking steps that could harm the already declining economy.
The conference did little to address the real cause of the energy crisis and was engrossed in treating the symptoms. The issue of circular debt that has swollen to almost Rs. 400 billion was not tackled. Steps to generate power were not clearly defined and methods to deal with distribution losses (a matter of federal responsibility) and overdue bills were not discussed.
Many would agree that the conference was a failure and a waste of time. No concrete blueprint was designed to resolve the crisis. The recommendations over power savings will account for a small percentage of the total demand. Energy conservation is only part of the process for an uninterrupted energy supply. The other half of this process was barely discussed. Nevertheless, we must not forget to commend our politicians, both at the federal and the provincial level, who set aside their personal differences to attend a conference for the sake of national interest. At the same time, it is true that industrialists from Sindh, KP and Baluchistan felt they were not adequately represented and that those who were present were not given much of a chance to contribute. The All Pakistan CNG Association even walked out for being sidelined. The important thing to consider is that there was a unanimous desire to attend a conference over a matter that affects everyone. We can build on this political convergence and next time commit to giving more respect to other parties and stakeholders.
Only when we have every party on board can Pakistan decide a national energy policy. The clutter from trying numerous techniques which are often at odds with each other needs to be cleared. We need to weigh the costs and benefits of drastic steps like introducing 2 day holidays. Will the loss in business in the short term be beneficial in the long run? Should the industry have more preference over consumers in closing shops early? These are issues that can be addressed when opposing parties can be brought together and given equal attention. One thing is for certain; iit won’t happen through superficial meetings which repeat the results of a previous conference.
By Nida Afaque
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