The American and Pakistan armies are locked in Afghanistan (2001) and Fata (2004) respectively. Pakistan is a poor country and cannot financially afford its continued presence of 1.5 million soldiers deployed in Fata and sooner than later the army has to pull out. My questions are how can the army pull out of Fata if at all? And when?
Pakistani Afghan policy is tied to the American policy in that country. The Americans after 10 years have realised that they are unable to bring peace to Afghanistan. The American trained Afghan army and police force are corrupt and unreliable despite huge amounts of dollar inflow. At the same time the Americans cannot leave Afghanistan to its people and warlords. Recently Karzai called Loya Jirga in Kabul to give future direction for Afghanistan. Over 2,000 delegates attended Loya Jirga in Kabul authorising US troops to stay in Afghanistan for 10 years beyond 2014 (Afghan jirga. Editorial. Dawn. November 22, 2011). Members of Loya Jirga in Afghanistan are hand picked by Karzai and reflect his wishes. In fact the decisions ultimately reflect the American policy in Afghanistan. It thus seems that the Americans are going to stay in Afghanistan for many years to come. The Taliban has rejected the decision of the Loya Jirga and it is going to be business as usual (Afghan Taliban reject jirga decision. AFP. Dawn. November 21, 2011). According to rough estimates Afghanistan should require over $7 billion of American money after they leave to sustain the war economy. Without this minimal aid Afghan government cannot survive.
Americans have been complaining since 2006 of double-faced Taliban policy of ISI, which they feel is deeply mixed up with the Taliban (Section S of ISI). Recently there has been a serious twist in AmPak relations. Isaf helicopters launched a pre dawn attack on two Salala Sar checkposts in Anargai Ghakhi Mountains in Baizai tehsil on 26th November near the Afghan border in Mohmand Agency killing 25 security forces including two officers and injured 13 others. Khugakhel Mohmand tribe inhabit the area. Part of the tribe is in Afghanistan due to Durand Line drawn in 1898. This is not the first Isaf attack on Pakistani security forces nor it will be the last. In the last three years Nato forces have launched 7 attacks into Pakistan killing more than 60 security forces.
The reason given in the past was that Pakistani security forces in the checkposts were facilitating fighters to cross into Afghanistan to attack Isaf forces. In retaliation Pakistan has stopped the supply line to Isaf. Beyond the supply line threat Pakistan has no other option. Nato trucks leaving Karachi comprise of 100 containers and 200 oil tankers daily. Each oil tanker carries 50,000 to 60,000 litres of oil and costs Rs4 to 5 million. The round trip takes 15 to 20 days (300 trucks carry supplies to Nato from city daily. Our Staff Reporter. Dawn. November 28, 2011).
The Shamsi air base in Balochistan used by US drones has been asked to be vacated in 15 days. Gen Musharraf handed over Shamsi air base constructed by rulers of UAE for their hunting expeditions to the Americans after 9/11 apparently to be used for only fuelling drones (Syed, Baqir Sajjad. US told to vacate Shamsi base; Nato supplies stopped; Noorani, Ahmed. Secret of Shamsi Base revealed as closure ordered. Dawn. November 27, 2011; Yusufzai, Rahimullah. Khugakhel tribe complains Islamabad gave up border. The News. November 27, 2011). Meanwhile Pakistan army in Fata is being attacked from both ends.
We are not getting any independent reports from Fata and are fed by ISPR through the newspapers. The newspaper reports claim that on an average 10 ‘militants’ are killed by artillery shelling and helicopter gunships missiles on daily basis in Kurram and Orakzai agencies for the last many years. Despite alleged heavy human loss of the ‘militants’ the insurgency has not abated. This is an unwinnable war. The army or the government has not considered the loss of houses, markets, domestic animals, and agriculture. Yet there are tall claims that people are returning to their homes in ‘cleared’ areas. What they will find there no one knows.
I have discussed army withdrawal from Fata with many intelligent people but have failed to get a satisfactory answer. Many believe that Pakistan has to stay the course despite economic crunch in the country. This is a fatal argument because Pakistan does not have endless resources to fight this war. The cost of deploying and feeding 1.5 million soldiers in a difficult terrain and hostile environment in Fata must be substantial. Then there is cost of launching F16 and helicopter gunship sorties (more than 10,000 since 2008). The fuel and maintenance cost of operating tanks and armoured personnel carriers in Fata must be significant. The cost of missiles and other armament must be prohibitive. Unfortunately the army and the government fail to disclose the cost of war in Fata. The Pakistan Army is also bleeding us in Siachin war for more than two decades.
There are others concerned about ‘writ’ of the nation in Fata. They get confused when told that the Pakistani government like the British before them had made agreements with the tribes to leave security and justice system in the hands of the tribes. No corrupt thanidar or patwari is allowed to function in Fata. The justice system is swift and free of corruption. There are major shortcomings in the Fata system. The ancient system of ‘badal’ (revenge) over generations is a bad idea, which ‘Frontier Gandhi’ (Wali Khan) tried to eliminate in pre partition days, and failed. Then despite abundant natural resources the tribes resist any industrial development in the area, which would lift the area out of poverty.
With the recent US debacle in Mohmand Agency and stoppage of American military requirements through Pakistan has put us in a strong position. We should seek a ban on drone attacks, a new agreement on ‘war on terror’, which would be in the interest of Pakistan and seek more financial inputs. On our side the army action in Fata should be put on hold and the political forces allowed to make a settlement with the ‘militants’. The money saved should be diverted to education, health and pay our increasing debt. Above all we need an independent inquiry into Fata war.
It remains to be seen if the present government with the backing of the army has enough wind to rise to the occasion. Will the ‘Memogate’ affair put breaks on the government? Will the annual dole outs from the Americans make the army more pliable as in case of Raymond Davis case where blood money was accepted?
By: Prof. Farakh A Khan
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